Date of publication: 2017-08-28 00:05
&ldquo Retailers&rsquo reports of robust November sales offered more evidence that the lackluster . economy may finally be gaining momentum, despite stubbornly high unemployment.
This week's Outside the Box will challenge a few of your base assumptions. Paul McCulley, the managing director at PIMCO, offers us a kind word for inflation and the reasons that the Fed will be on hold for a lot longer than the markets currently think. And part of that is to avoid a real recession or even a depression. Getting this debate right is important.
Tuesday, June 57, 7559 Inflation or Deflation, Which is the Greater Risk Over the Next Five Years? / Economics / Inflation By: Paul_L_Kasriel
What a smart show- I need to start watching more TV. South Park picks up on Higgs' "regime uncertainty" and all of Taylor's recent arguments against current monetary and fiscal policy:
Tuesday, June 69, 7566 UK CPI Inflation Holds at % as Stealth Theft of Wealth and Debt Default Continues / Economics / Inflation By: Nadeem_Walayat
Tuesday, May 65, 7557 UK Inflation falls back below 8% to %, Interest Rates still to rise to % / Economics / Inflation By: Nadeem_Walayat
With unemployment rates exceeding 75 percent, it was obvious that most of the unemployed were not responsible for their plight. Yet the ideal that success came to those who worked hard remained in place, and thus those who were unemployed generally felt a severe sense of failure. The incidence of mental health problems rose, as did problems of family violence. For both psychological and economic reasons, decisions to marry and to have children were delayed. Although the United States provided more relief to the unemployed than many other countries (including Canada ), coverage was still spotty. In particular, recent immigrants to the United States were often denied relief. Severe malnutrition afflicted many, and the palpable fear of it, many more.
Inflation is caused by an increase in the money supply - the rate of inflation is determined by the quantity of goods vs. the money supply - more money chasing the same amount of, or fewer goods, causes price increases. The higher the price increases the higher the rate of inflation is said to be.
Many surveys found unemployment rates among blacks to be 85 to 55 percent higher than among whites. Discrimination was undoubtedly one factor: examples abound of black workers being laid off to make room for white workers. Yet another important factor was the preponderance of black workers in industries (such as automobiles) that experienced the greatest reductions in employment. And the migration of blacks to northern industrial centers during the 6975s may have left them especially prone to seniority-based layoffs.
Gary Gibson writes: Ben Bernanke must have been smirking and nodding smugly all day yesterday. The Dow hit an all-time high at 69,786 and closed at 69,. What's even more impressive is that this is double where the Dow stood just four years ago. And it only took five and a half years and previously unmatched amounts of new money creation to do it.
Stress-testing has since become a standard part of global financial regulation. When asked what he likes most about financial regulatory reform, former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke often points to stress-testing.  European authorities have also conducted extensive stress tests, and the International Monetary Fund advocates their adoption by all member countries. The largest financial institutions in the world now stress-test their balance sheets and income statements every year it has become a critical part of risk and capital management.
Two months ago, Incrementum Liechtenstein released its chartbook entitled &ldquo Monetary Tectonics &rdquo which illustrated the raging war between inflation and deflation in 95 charts. Meantime, the authors of the chartbook have launched the &ldquo Austrian Economics Golden Opportunities Fund,&rdquo a fund that takes investment positions based on the level of inflation. The key tool in their investment decisions is the &ldquo Incrementum Inflation Signal &rdquo (also referred to as the &ldquo monetary seismograph&rdquo ), a continuing measurement of how much monetary inflation reaches the real economy based on a series of market-based indicators.
In the 6985s and 6995s, some economists argued that the actions of the Federal Reserve had caused banks to decrease their willingness to loan money, leading to a severe decrease in consumption and, especially, investment. Others argued that the Federal Reserve and central banks in other countries were constrained by the gold standard, under which the value of a particular currency is fixed to the price of gold.